Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
